Could Google+ break online social media as we know it?

The early adopters will flock to Google+ because it's new and shiny. These are the very people who generate most of the valuable content on Twitter and Facebook. Maybe they will cross post to all three networks, in which case little would change. However, if they abandon the older sites in favour of Google+ they will take their content and a good number of their followers with them.

Maybe they will take just enough out of Twitter and Facebook to make them less than their former selves, but not quite enough to make Google+ reach critical mass and go mainstream. The average user will have a confusing choice of either moving themselves, their network and their content over to a new platform, or staying where they are. Neither option will give them back the experience they had before. Online social media will be trapped in a stand off, gradually tending towards fragmentation, Facebook and Twitter diminished, Google+ not quite what it could be.

Two's company. Three, especially when the third party thinks they should be as important, if not more important than the others, is a crowd.